Deliberations of a Desert Rat

The AIA released today the teams that appealed their division placements. Surprisingly there were only four for football. Unsurprisingly, three of them were Notre Dame, Salpointe, and St. Mary’s.

However, the fourth one was odd – Tucson Santa Rita decided to appeal up to D2 from D4.

To me, this makes no sense. A D4 Southern sectional that includes Tucson-area schools Sabino (who didn’t appeal), Palo Verde, Empire, and Rio Rico would seem to be a good fit for Santa Rita – for sure an easier path to the playoffs.

Instead, Santa Rita opted for the massive D2 Sonoran sectional which now will include Salpointe, CDO, Cienega, and Ironwood Ridge.

If it’s travel times they’re doing it for, maybe that makes sense. The D4 sectional would have also included trips to Safford, Florence, Globe, and Fountain Hills. The Safford trip is probably the most daunting of them all since Safford is the only D4 school in Southeastern Arizona (Douglas is D3).

In any case, given that information, I’ve updated the sectional projections now to include the new appeals. I’m 99% confident that this will end up being the final version the AIA comes out with, and 100% confident that if any changes are made, it will involve less than 8 teams switching sectionals.

Teams with a * next to their enrollment numbers indicate the school appealed to the listed division.

After considering a lot of discussion surrounding some of the appeals (see the previous post) and looking at the way the sectionals are currently arranging, I really have some issues that I’m trying to work through.

One of them is the obvious appeals for the four major Catholic schools: Seton Catholic, Notre Dame Prep, St. Mary’s and Salpointe Catholic. All four are currently in D4 due to enrollment numbers.

Notre Dame is most likely only appealing up one division (from D4 to D3). Seton, in the last 4 years, has appealed up to 4A-II, so if they continue that trend, they too will appeal to D3.

St. Mary’s and Salpointe have historically appealed all the way to the highest division to play. Both schools have a very competitive history, with each owning a couple of Region titles, and both are usually playoff teams.

However, with the new divisional and sectional breakdowns, it might make more sense for St. Mary’s and Salpointe to take the path of Notre Dame and Seton and only appeal up to D3. (If that happens, look for Vista Grande to appeal up to D2 to play with Casa Grande, and Sabino to appeal up to D3 as well.) There are several benefits to playing in D3 – competition, travel times, and in some cases a renewed rivalry.

For example, Salpointe would play in the Kino (Southern) sectional along with other Southern Arizona high schools Amphi (a historical rival dating back to the 1950′s), Sabino, Catalina, Douglas, Sahuarita, and Nogales. Seton Catholic would also be placed in the Kino sectional as well. The travel times for the remainder of the section (Williams Field, Tempe, Vista Grande, Campo Verde, Apache Junction, Queen Creek, and Poston Butte) are not too much of a stretch. St. Mary’s would play in the Skyline (Western) sectional along with West Valley schools Cactus, Desert Edge, Liberty and Peoria. Notre Dame would be placed in the East Sky (Northcentral/Eastern) sectional along with Saguaro.

Already many of the Catholic HS sports are classified as D3 or D2 in some cases. Arguments could be made to move these four to D2, but of them, only St. Mary’s and Salpointe would seriously consider it – the Salpointe AD has stated that he’d prefer all his sports to be in the same division, even though all appeals are on a sport-by-sport basis. If the majority are already in D3, it’d make it easier for him if he just based his appeal on that and moved everything to D3. If he wants absolutely no travel times, an all Tucson region in D2 might be the ticket.

On a personal note, I’d love to see these schools all compete in D4. Seton has a history already with the schools in D4 (the old 3A conference), and it would be no stretch to include Notre Dame, Seton, and St. Mary’s in the Western Canyon (Western) sectional, which would pit them against the perennial West powers Chino Valley and Wickenburg. On the Southern side of the fence, Salpointe staying home in D4 would cause Sabino to stay home as well, matching up several Tucson-area schools in that sectional (Sabino, Santa Rita, Palo Verde, Empire, and Rio Rico) along with Salpointe. The travel times there would not be bad either, with the remainder of the sectional including Florence, Coolidge, Globe and Fountain Hills, Safford being the farthest travel time for any school. (Yes, there would be a little perverse pleasure in seeing the horror on the faces of the Rim Country AD’s who would know that the path to the championship was no longer guaranteed from the old 3A East schools, but I digress…)

Realistically though, I believe that Salpointe and St. Mary’s will end up in D2, with Notre Dame playing D3 and Seton staying D4. Call it a gut feeling.

On Monday 10/18/10, the AIA released its Initial Placement (IP) list, where they classify all the members schools by division for football.

We already knew that there would be 6 divisions for football – five 11-man and one 8-man. Initially, I had tried to create a projected realignment based on previous enrollment numbers, with the understanding that there would be some changes because some schools would see movement due to increased or decreased enrollments.

After reviewing the IP and comparing to my initial projections, I wasn’t far off. In my initial projections, I had Divisions 1-3 with 39 teams each, D4 with 38, and D5-6 with 35. The IP has D1 with 40, D2 with 39, D3 with 40, D4 with 36, D5 with 39, and D6 with 31. And remember, I’m only counting football schools, even though the IP encompassed more than that – like Xavier Girls Prep and Bowie High School, for example.

Some highlights – Tolleson, Boulder Creek, Sandra Day O’Connor, and Pinnacle are all D1 instead of my projected D2, while Casa Grande, Horizon, and Cesar Chavez slipped to D2 from a projected D1. Nogales, Sunrise Mountain, Copper Canyon, Yuma, Liberty, and Vista Grande dropped to D3 from a projected D2 – Liberty I knew that might happen, but I was trying to even out the sectionals so I bumped up Liberty to projected D2. Tempe, Douglas, Youngker, Coconino, and Flagstaff came in at D3 also, though I projected them at D4. North Pointe Prep and South Pointe also ended up at D4 instead of D5, but Sedona and Round Valley ended up dropping to D5. No real surprises in D6, though I had projected Tempe Prep, Tanque Verde, and Hayden to end up there.

Overall, out of 225 football schools, I nailed 190 schools (84.4%) – not bad considering I was working with data over two years old.

Now the other issue is to determine who’s going to appeal their placements. We know for sure that the following schools will appeal their placements: Salpointe Catholic (D4), St. Mary’s (D4), Notre Dame Prep (D4), and Seton Catholic (D4). I am projecting that the following schools will also appeal their placements: Round Valley (D5), Yuma (D3), and possibly Sabino (D4).

The AIA has specific rules for appealing placements (8.1.10), which include geography, number of athletic programs at the school, last four years of student enrollment (to determine if the enrollment is varying wildly), and competitive history over the last four years. (The AIA made it a point this year to note that teams are no longer allowed to appeal down a division, and driving time instead of mileage will be the main factor for geography.) In these cases, the AIA would be hard pressed NOT to grant the appeals of the first four, and the latter three would be petitioning based on travel times (RV, Yuma) and competitive history (Sabino). Lastly, and this is important, schools are being allowed to appeal placements on a sport-by-sport basis. That means, for example, that a school that appeals a football placement doesn’t have to factor into their appeal their basketball team too.

Some people on the forums have made specific comments regarding why certain teams should be moved up or down. Some of these comments are pretty thoughtful (“while total enrollment is a factor in a quality football program, it matters less than people think. Dobson is the 6th largest school in AZ … and would likely struggle if they played Fairfax”), others show a distinct lack of intelligence (“part of the reason [Salpointe] play[s] in the highest division is so they don’t have to play too many of the good Tucson teams and lose.”)

That said, here’s an updated look at the projected sectional alignments now that we know where teams will be placed in each division.

Looking at this, I see a couple of things jump out at me –
D1 throws Salpointe and Sunnyside in with Desert Vista, Mountain Pointe, Basha, Chandler and Hamilton in the Southeast. Easily the toughest sectional in the state. The East Valley is a close second, with all the Mesa and Gilbert schools along with Brophy and Central. West Valley brings up the rear with Maryvale, Boulder Creek, O’Connor, Pinnacle, Mountain Ridge, and Westview grouped together.
[EDIT: After a good suggestion, I moved Kofa, Cibola, and San Luis to the West Valley, St. Mary's, Mesquite, and Dobson to the Southeast, and North and Carl Hayden to the East Valley. While Carl Hayden is inconvenienced a little more, the travel time saved by the Yuma schools makes it the correct decision.]

Over in D2, you’ve got Millennium, Centennial, Marcos de Niza, Cactus Shadows, Horizon and Perry in the Northwest, and the Sonoran is an all-Tucson sectional + Casa Grande, who may turn around and appeal up if Buena and Sunnyside appeal down from D1. The Desert West groups Kellis, Apollo, Prescott, Lake Havasu, and Chaparral.

D3 was the biggest headache to try and group, and I’m still not satisfied with the outcome. On the one hand, the Kino sectional is pretty tough with Williams Field, Amphi, Apache Junction, Queen Creek and Poston Butte who is tearing up the competition in the Independent schedules this season. On the other hand, the East Sky is also no slouch with Notre Dame, Saguaro, Thunderbird, Greenway, Arcadia, and Washington. The poor Skyline sectional groups Liberty, Cactus, Bradshaw Mountain, Desert Edge and Peoria with a bunch of mediocre teams like Glendale, Dysart, and Agua Fria.
[EDIT: Again, noticing some disparity in travel times, I moved Vista Grande to Kino, Saguaro to East Sky, and Yuma to Skyline.]

The path to a D4 championship no longer goes through the Rim Country, it now goes through the South if Sabino stays in D4. Try navigating a gauntlet of Seton Catholic, Florence, Fountain Hills, Coolidge, Empire, Sabino, Santa Rita, and Palo Verde, and the latter two are not exactly easy outs by any stretch (even though both are having down years this year). The Rim schools at least get the Rez schools to beat up on, the South gets… Globe and Rio Rico. Ouch. Wickenburg in the West now has to contend with Mingus and Buckeye, in addition to the usual suspects of Chino Valley and Estrella Foothills and occasionally Parker.
[EDIT: Switched Seton Catholic with Cortez from Western Canyon to Desert Sky - Seton is farther south in Phoenix than Cortez, so that made way more sense, though I do expect Seton along with Rio Rico to appeal up to D3.]

D5 was easily no contest. Sedona Red Rock and Santa Cruz, dropping down from 3A/D4 to D5, will at least benefit from the change in competition. The Southeast will continue to have its hands full with Willcox, Bisbee, Thatcher, Miami, Pusch Ridge Christian, and Morenci leading the way. The Western Sky once again groups most of the private schools like Arizona Lutheran, Phoenix Christian, Yuma Catholic, Valley Christian, and Bourgade Catholic, along with Canyon State Academy and Tempe Prep. The Northeastern Sky will have some new faces as Scottsdale Christian gets to take on St. Johns, Williams, and Red Mesa. Round Valley, if it stays in D5, makes this a more competitive sectional than at first glance.
[EDIT: Checking travel times and finding Sedona-Yuma was an hour longer than Sedona-Red Mesa HS, I swapped Sedona and Northwest Christian.]

Finally, D6 really doesn’t have much new to it other than Pima and Ray come back to 8-man football, and D6 welcomes Gilbert Christian and Rancho Solano Prep to the South to face perennial powers St. David, Valley Union, and Valley Lutheran.

So, I was doing a little tinkering and decided to see if I could project what the AIA realignment might look like for football starting in 2011. (My first attempt ignored the fact that regions are being done away with in favor of sections – I have since updated this to remedy that oversight.)

To do this exercise, I used the current enrollment figures as listed at the AIA website. Now, of course, there’s going to be movement, but given that the initial placement and subsequent placement appeals process will take place beginning Oct. 18, it’s not going to be far off.

To wit, what we do know is that there will be six divisions for football – Divisions 1 – 5, with Division 6 being strictly 8-man football.

We also know that there are going to be approximately 40 teams in each of the first five divisions, or close to that number. We also know that each division will have three sections.

So, I went through this, keeping in mind not only enrollment but also attempting to preserve region groupings by location wherever possible. There were some assumptions that had to be made on which schools would petition up or down, but some of those were relatively easy based on the schools’ past histories. Schools that appealed their placements are noted with a + or – next to their number indicating they petitioned up or down. An (F) next to a school indicates the team usually plays a freelance schedule but would otherwise be placed in that division/sectionals.

Division 1 is the easiest aside from Division 6, in that it’s all 5A-I schools plus the biggest 5A-II schools.

Division 2 contains the remainder of the 5A-II schools and the biggest 4A-I schools + Liberty.

Division 3 is the smaller 4A-I schools and the majority of the 4A-II schools.

Obviously the biggest change is in Division 4, which was the old 3A Conference. However, if you looked at the previous conference listing, you had to know that was going to have the biggest set of changes. For one, the current 3A Conference only has 28 teams, while the 4A and 5A conferences have over 60 each! For another, 7 teams will be added to the division that have never played there before. Sedona, Parker, Round Valley, and Seton all are playing up since the estimated cutoff is 600 students.

Division 5 is pretty much unchanged since it was all 2A to begin with. I seriously considered moving Round Valley (514) to D5 but then considered that RV competes well in 3A anyway. However, given that South Pointe recently canceled their season for lack of players, and Santa Cruz and San Tan Foothills have low enrollments, those three had to be moved down to D5. Arizona Lutheran, however, has always “played up” and they continue to do so in D5.

Division 6 (8-man) was the biggest headache. Trying to map out disparate locations for the smallest schools in the state was no joy, but I think I figured out where teams should be placed. Some assumptions – Pima, Tempe Prep, Hayden, and Ray all move “back” to D6, while Rough Rock becomes a new entry to D6 along with newcomers Gilbert Christian and Rancho Solano Prep.

Could it be better? Sure, but what I’ve mapped out is pretty kosher, plus it’s feasible for most schools’ travel budgets too. Of course, not everyone’s travel budget will be nice (Rock Point, Fredonia, Beaver Dam), but then again, when you live in the very corners of the state, you’re going to have some travel nightmares.

Do I think that the AIA will consider this? Normally, I would say no, but the scary thing is – it’s actually attainable AND reasonable. It’s not exclusionary, it actually does depend on several schools petitioning up or down (so it accounts for some small movement), and its sets itself up for growth.

Come Oct. 18, we’ll see what happens. The AIA will be releasing the initial Divisional placement at the Executive Board meeting that day, with the appeals set to be heard from Oct. 19 – 25. The preliminary placements will be announced on Nov. 2, and the final placement will be on Nov. 15. Then the whole process starts over again as sectionals are created (Dec. 6), appealed (Dec. 7 – Jan.6), and finalized (Jan. 18).