Deliberations of a Desert Rat

So the proposed list of schools placed in their divisions was released from AIA. This list did not have any sectional alignments, just divisional placements.

The below is my projected sectional alignments. I took into account the previous bloc’s alignments and team histories to account for the movements.

Any team with a ** means that they will have to appeal their divisional placement. Currently, these are the following:

Kofa D2
Yuma D3
Mesquite D2
Salpointe Catholic D4
Notre Dame Prep D4
St. Mary’s Catholic D4
Palo Verde D4
Sabino D4
Santa Rita D4
Sedona Red Rock D4
Tanque Verde D4
Rock Point D5
North Pointe Prep D4
Shonto Prep D5

Mesquite will be appealing to D1. It’s simply a matter of convenience for them – they are a decent team in D1, and the remainder of Gilbert and Mesa schools are already D1, so this is a no-brainer.

Salpointe will again appeal up to D2 where that D2 S2 section will contain 9 Tucson-area teams and Nogales.

Notre Dame will again appeal up to D2. No brainer there.

Last bloc, St. Mary’s was the only school to appeal up to D1 from D4. While they may do so again, it actually makes sense for them to just go to D2. I am guessing here that they will go D2 and become one of the top 15-20 teams in that Division. BUT if Yuma and Kofa move down, it might make sense for St. Mary’s to move back up again.

Palo Verde and Sabino both appealed up from D4 to D3 due to travel times. Now with CDO, Catalina Foothills and Cholla being bumped down to D3 and Empire moving up from D4, having PV and Sabino again play in D3 makes perfect sense.

Santa Rita appealed up to D2 last bloc, but this year will probably only ask to move up to D3 due to travel. D3 S1 will become another Tucson-area dominated section with 10 teams, and that’s before adding Douglas into the mix.

Sedona Red Rock played D5 this past bloc, and I get the feeling that they were happy about being out of D4. This time they will be appealing down to D5 because they fit better competitively with the other D5 Rez schools like Hopi and Rough Rock and Sanders Valley.

Tanque Verde has absoltely no business in D4. They will appeal down based on travel times, where they will continue to play teams close by like Thatcher and Willcox.

Someone please clue me in how Rock Point, with 115 students, is being classified as D5, while Chandler Prep, with almost three times that number, is still D6? Yeah, I don’t see Rock Point moving up.

North Pointe Prep has not announced they are reinstating their program, and they probably will not unless they are allowed to move to D5.

Shonto Prep is a Freelance program, so they are a non-issue.

However, the Yuma schools are holding the key to massive appeals and realignment changes. Yuma will again appeal up to make travel times easiest for themselves. HOWEVER… will they go up to D1 or D2? That depends on what Gila Ridge does – they are competitive in D2, so do they stay or go up to D1? Cibola has been competitive in D1 recently, so they won’t be able to move down. San Luis has the option of claiming “competitiveness” to move down to D2, and Kofa is already aligned into D2, but do they want to stay or move up to D1? If Kofa decides to not appeal its divisional placing, then we’re looking at D2 Section 1 containing Gila Ridge, Kofa, Yuma, and San Luis (who will appeal DOWN based on competitiveness factor and travel times). If this is the case, look for Camelback to be moved to D2 S3, South Mountain to move to D2 S3, and general mayhem in D2.

Speaking of competitiveness, I went through the last three years of data to see which teams SHOULD move down – outside of the Yuma schools – based on that key idea. Here’s my list. This list is based on the proposed divisional alignment for 2013-2015:

Carl Hayden (D1 -> D2)
Dobson (D1 -> D2)
Westwood (D1 -> D2)
La Joya (D2 -> D3)
South Mountain (D2 -> D3)
McClintock (D2 -> D3)
Desert View (D2 -> D3)
Cortez (D3 -> D4)
Apache Junction (D3 -> D4)
Sedona Red Rock (D4 -> D5) (see above)
Tanque Verde (D4 -> D5) (ditto)
Rock Point (D5 -> D6) (ditto again)

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 18th, 2012 at 5:59 pm and is filed under News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.