Projected AIA Realignment for 2011-2013

So, I was doing a little tinkering and decided to see if I could project what the AIA realignment might look like for football starting in 2011. (My first attempt ignored the fact that regions are being done away with in favor of sections – I have since updated this to remedy that oversight.)

To do this exercise, I used the current enrollment figures as listed at the AIA website. Now, of course, there’s going to be movement, but given that the initial placement and subsequent placement appeals process will take place beginning Oct. 18, it’s not going to be far off.

To wit, what we do know is that there will be six divisions for football – Divisions 1 – 5, with Division 6 being strictly 8-man football.

We also know that there are going to be approximately 40 teams in each of the first five divisions, or close to that number. We also know that each division will have three sections.

So, I went through this, keeping in mind not only enrollment but also attempting to preserve region groupings by location wherever possible. There were some assumptions that had to be made on which schools would petition up or down, but some of those were relatively easy based on the schools’ past histories. Schools that appealed their placements are noted with a + or – next to their number indicating they petitioned up or down. An (F) next to a school indicates the team usually plays a freelance schedule but would otherwise be placed in that division/sectionals.

Division 139 teams Division 239 teams Division 339 teams Division 438 teams Division 535 teams Division 635 teams
East ValleySonoranKinoNortheastSoutheastEast
Horizon2311Vista Grande1800Catalina1404Round Valley514 +Baboquivari278Cibecue107
Desert Mountain2339Nogales1821Sahuarita1412Alchesay709Pusch Ridge299Superior142
Dobson3019Flowing Wells1825Higley1418Snowflake712San Carlos334Rock Point142
Mesa Mt. View3225Cienega1834Amphitheater1450Ganado744Tombstone341Duncan153
Mesa3639CDO1838Palo Verde1484Holbrook752Miami353Ft. Thomas159
Red Mountain3556Marana1877Campo Verde1500Show Low820San Manuel368Joseph City163
Skyline2412Perry1891Cholla1645Tuba City822Bisbee388Mogollon172
Westwood2874Ironwood Ridge1913Queen Creek1700Winslow824Morenci390Rough Rock180
Desert Ridge2397Pueblo1960Poston Butte1725Window Rock842Benson414Veritas Prep191
Mesquite3451Marana Mt. View1964Combs1735Payson848Thatcher429Pima215
Gilbert3127Marcos de Niza1965Sahuaro1750Monument Valley890Willcox443Salt River238
Highland3097Desert View2090Catalina Foothills1759Blue Ridge914Santa Cruz504Shonto Prep (F)134
Corona del Sol2522Rincon/University2116Apache Junction1764Chinle1058
West ValleyNorthwestSkylineGrand CanyonWestern SkySouth
Carl Hayden2277Sunrise Mountain1786 +Shadow Ridge1500Sedona Red Rock523 +Arizona Lutheran185 +Patagonia91
Central2265Liberty1805Sierra Linda1535Parker527 +Westwind Prep293Gilbert Christian121
St. Mary's778 +Copper Canyon1921Mohave1536Wickenburg785Phoenix Christian303Ajo139
Brophy2506Millennium1990Desert Edge1549Chino Valley829Yuma Catholic327St. David142
North2549Barry Goldwater2034Buckeye1599River Valley930Antelope350Hayden151
Westview2317Deer Valley2039Cactus1627Page1044Canyon State Academy374Valley Union164
Alhambra2905Ironwood2080Verrado1650Estrella Foothills1097Valley Christian399Ray169
Maryvale2637Sandra Day O'Connor2125Peoria1659Coconino1204Bourgade Catholic402Gila Bend171
Trevor Browne2902Centennial2144Glendale1680Mingus1235Tonopah Valley425Tempe Prep220
Mountain Ridge2492Willow Canyon2175Agua Fria1714Cortez1278San Tan Foothills525Tanque Verde244
Valley Vista2338La Joya2207Bradshaw Mtn1747Youngker1347South Pointe654 -ASDB (F)79
Cesar Chavez2592Tolleson2238Dysart1775Flagstaff1443 -
North Canyon2449Boulder Creek2253Raymond S. Kellis1775
SoutheastDesert WestEast SkyDesert SkyNortheastern SkyWest
Desert Vista2920Apollo1804Notre Dame Prep945 +Seton Catholic547 +Williams247Fredonia87
Mountain Pointe2446Shadow Mountain1854Maricopa1473Globe641Red Mesa328Ash Fork88
Cibola2355Independence1866Saguaro1476Safford793Scottsdale Christian341Orme128
Kofa2513Prescott1938Greenway1548Fountain Hills824St. Johns352Bagdad137
San Luis2461Camelback1958Williams Field1550Coolidge905Northwest Christian400Salome139
Hamilton3345Kingman1974Paradise Valley1578Empire907Sanders Valley413Joy Christian150
Chandler3226Betty H. Fairfax2000Arcadia1590Florence1046Pinon416Beaver Dam161
Basha2455South Mountain2001Thunderbird1620Rio Rico1157Greyhills Academy428Valley Lutheran174
Casa Grande3320Gila Ridge2025Washington1630Santa Rita1291Many Farms430San Pasqual175
Buena2591Chaparral2037Moon Valley1688Coronado1317North Pointe Prep451Mayer185
Salpointe Catholic1191 +Lake Havasu2060McClintock1778Douglas1346Camp Verde466Rancho Solano Prep215
Tucson2974Yuma2110Sunnyslope1784Tempe1347Hopi468PDSD (F)74
Sunnyside2264Pinnacle2174Cactus Shadows1794Sabino1374

Division 1 is the easiest aside from Division 6, in that it’s all 5A-I schools plus the biggest 5A-II schools.

Division 2 contains the remainder of the 5A-II schools and the biggest 4A-I schools + Liberty.

Division 3 is the smaller 4A-I schools and the majority of the 4A-II schools.

Obviously the biggest change is in Division 4, which was the old 3A Conference. However, if you looked at the previous conference listing, you had to know that was going to have the biggest set of changes. For one, the current 3A Conference only has 28 teams, while the 4A and 5A conferences have over 60 each! For another, 7 teams will be added to the division that have never played there before. Sedona, Parker, Round Valley, and Seton all are playing up since the estimated cutoff is 600 students.

Division 5 is pretty much unchanged since it was all 2A to begin with. I seriously considered moving Round Valley (514) to D5 but then considered that RV competes well in 3A anyway. However, given that South Pointe recently canceled their season for lack of players, and Santa Cruz and San Tan Foothills have low enrollments, those three had to be moved down to D5. Arizona Lutheran, however, has always “played up” and they continue to do so in D5.

Division 6 (8-man) was the biggest headache. Trying to map out disparate locations for the smallest schools in the state was no joy, but I think I figured out where teams should be placed. Some assumptions – Pima, Tempe Prep, Hayden, and Ray all move “back” to D6, while Rough Rock becomes a new entry to D6 along with newcomers Gilbert Christian and Rancho Solano Prep.

Could it be better? Sure, but what I’ve mapped out is pretty kosher, plus it’s feasible for most schools’ travel budgets too. Of course, not everyone’s travel budget will be nice (Rock Point, Fredonia, Beaver Dam), but then again, when you live in the very corners of the state, you’re going to have some travel nightmares.

Do I think that the AIA will consider this? Normally, I would say no, but the scary thing is – it’s actually attainable AND reasonable. It’s not exclusionary, it actually does depend on several schools petitioning up or down (so it accounts for some small movement), and its sets itself up for growth.

Come Oct. 18, we’ll see what happens. The AIA will be releasing the initial Divisional placement at the Executive Board meeting that day, with the appeals set to be heard from Oct. 19 – 25. The preliminary placements will be announced on Nov. 2, and the final placement will be on Nov. 15. Then the whole process starts over again as sectionals are created (Dec. 6), appealed (Dec. 7 – Jan.6), and finalized (Jan. 18).

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