There are two metrics that are important out of this:
It is generally accepted that for item #1, the average ranking system should have a success rate over 85%%. For item #2, generally anything above 70% is a success, since teams will win and lose games throughout the season and will move around in the rankings quite radically in some cases.
A wrap up summary of the numbers is at the end of this post. Be sure to check it out if you're interested in the playoff findings!
That said, here's the season summary:
1A:
Preseason Top 12: End of Season Top 12:
1) Valley Union 1) Pima
2) Mogollon 2) Valley Union
3) Pima 3) Mogollon
4) Bagdad 4) Bagdad
5) Joseph City 5) Tempe Prep
6) Ft. Thomas 6) Joseph City
7) Orme 7) Mayer
8) Tempe Prep 8) St. David
9) Mayer 9) Williams
10) Duncan 10) Patagonia
11) Valley Lutheran 11) Salt River
12) St. David [ 12) Orme ]
[ 16) Duncan ]
Teams that made the playoffs (region seed):
Pima (East #1)
Valley Union (South #1)
Mogollon (North #1)
Bagdad (West #1)
Tempe Prep (East #2)
Joseph City (North #2)
Mayer (West #2)
St. David (South #2)
Williams (North #3)
Patagonia (South #3)
Salt River (West #3)
Duncan (East #3)
Summary:
11 out of top 12 in playoffs (success = 91.7%)
9 out of top 12 preseason to final (success = 75%)
Notes:
Duncan instead of Orme was the only miss. However, again, a team from a weak
region was obligated to send a third team. In this case, a 3-5 Duncan team
made the playoffs ahead of a 4-4 Orme team. Other teams with cases based on
records alone were Ajo (4-3, but #25 strength of schedule) and Ft. Thomas
(4-4, #8 SOS). This system is ok, but could be better.
2A:
Preseason Top 16: End of Season Top 16:
1) St. Johns 1) St. Johns
2) Valley Christian 2) Phoenix Christian
3) Hayden 3) Benson
4) Yuma Catholic 4) Northwest Christian
5) Arizona Lutheran 5) Yuma Catholic
6) Red Mesa 6) Pusch Ridge Christian
7) Thatcher 7) Red Mesa
8) Antelope 8) Valley Christian
9) Scottsdale Christian 9) Ray
10) Bisbee 10) Scottsdale Christian
11) Benson [ 11) Greyhills Academy ]
12) Phoenix Christian 12) San Manuel
13) Camp Verde [ 13) Hopi ]
14) Canyon State Academy 14) Thatcher
15) Pusch Ridge Christian 15) Antelope
16) Sanders Valley 16) Camp Verde
[ 17) Hayden ]
[ 21) Morenci ]
(seed) Teams that made the playoffs:
(1) Phoenix Christian
(2) St. Johns
(3) Valley Christian
(4) Benson
(5) Pusch Ridge Christian
(6) Northwest Christian
(7) Yuma Catholic
(8) Scottsdale Christian
(9) Thatcher
(10) Red Mesa
(11) Ray
(12) Camp Verde
(13) Morenci
(14) Hayden
(15) San Manuel
(16) Antelope
Summary:
14 out of top 16 in playoffs (success = 87.5%)
11 out of top 16 preseason to final (success = 68.75%)
Notes:
This is the second year for Power Points in 2A - if you recall, in the first
year, there was a major problem since a team with a losing
record made it in ahead of two teams with better records.
This year, there wasn't much of a choice here - because of the way teams played in 2008, there was bound to be at least one team with a losing record making it in the playoffs. However, Greyhills (5-5, #11 SOS) was snubbed in favor of Hayden (4-6, #14 SOS), while Hopi (4-5) and Morenci (also 4-5) were pretty much interchangable, though Morenci did have the better SOS (#2, vs Hopi's #15) - I won't quibble about that, since I feel the better team of those two did get in.
Adding insult - both Hayden and Morenci were seeded higher than teams with better records (San Manuel and Antelope, both 5-4). This continues to prove my argument that power points are not the answer for playoffs and a ranking system needs to be implemented.
The best solution is here.
3A:
Preseason Top 16: End of Season Top 16:
1) Show Low 1) Payson
2) Blue Ridge 2) Wickenburg
3) Coolidge 3) Fountain Hills
4) Wickenburg 4) Blue Ridge
5) Round Valley 5) Winslow
6) River Valley 6) Window Rock
7) Winslow 7) Estrella Foothills
8) Snowflake 8) Safford
9) Fountain Hills 9) Round Valley
10) Payson 10) Holbrook
11) Chino Valley 11) Empire
12) Tuba City 12) Snowflake
13) Monument Valley 13) Chino Valley
14) Safford [ 14) Monument Valley ]
15) Maricopa 15) Coolidge
16) Ganado 16) Santa Cruz
[ 18) Show Low ]
(seed) Teams that made the playoffs:
(1) Payson
(2) Blue Ridge
(3) Fountain Hills
(4) Wickenburg
(5) Round Valley
(6) Winslow
(7) Estrella Foothills
(8) Safford
(9) Snowflake
(10) Empire
(11) Window Rock
(12) Chino Valley
(13) Coolidge
(14) Show Low
(15) Santa Cruz
(16) Holbrook
Summary:
15 out of top 16 in playoffs (success = 93.75%)
11 out of top 16 preseason to final (success = 68.75%)
Notes:
Power Points were in play here in 3A, and Monument Valley (5-5) was the odd
one out, again in favor of a team with a losing record (Show Low, 4-6). Again,
the team with the worst record should have been seeded 16th, but Show Low was
somehow able to get a 14 seed.
4A-II:
Preseason Top 16: End of Season Top 16:
1) Notre Dame Prep 1) Notre Dame Prep
2) Mingus 2) Palo Verde
3) Higley 3) Coronado
4) Palo Verde 4) Santa Rita
5) QUeen Creek 5) Higley
6) Buckeye 6) Mingus
7) Arcadia 7) Queen Creek
8) Bradshaw Mountain 8) Greenway
9) Flagstaff 9) Buckeye
10) Washington 10) Amphi
11) Santa Rita 11) Arcadia
12) Greenway 12) Sahuarita
13) Mohave 13) Bradshaw Mountain
14) Sahuarita [ 14) Mohave ]
15) Seton Catholic 15) Washington
16) Coronado [ 16) Dysart ]
[ 19) Moon Valley ]
[ 21) Tempe ]
(seed) Teams that made the playoffs:
(1) Notre Dame Prep
(2) Coronado
(3) Palo Verde
(4) Queen Creek
(5) Greenway
(6) Santa Rita
(7) Higley
(8) Amphi
(9) Mingus
(10) Arcadia
(11) Washington
(12) Tempe
(13) Moon Valley
(14) Buckeye
(15) Bradshaw Mountain
(16) Sahuarita
Summary:
14 out of top 16 in playoffs (success = 87.5%)
14 out of top 16 preseason to final (success = 87.5%)
Notes:
No arguments here. Both teams included had better records than the ones they
replaced.
4A-I:
Preseason Top 16: End of Season Top 16:
1) Saguaro 1) Saguaro
2) Sabino 2) Chaparral
3) Cactus 3) Peoria
4) Canyon del Oro 4) Canyon del Oro
5) Chaparral 5) Sabino
6) Peoria 6) Paradise Valley
7) Cienega 7) Millennium
8) Paradise Valley 8) Cienega
9) Prescott 9) Sunnyslope
10) Nogales 10) Prescott
11) Millennium 11) Cactus
12) McClintock 12) Apache Junction
13) Marana 13) Nogales
14) Agua Fria [ 14) Flowing Wells ]
15) Apache Junction 15) Catalina Foothills
16) Cactus Shadows 16) Lake Havasu
[ 18) Agua Fria ]
(seed) Teams that made the playoffs:
(1) Saguaro
(2) Chaparral
(3) Paradise Valley
(4) Peoria
(5) Millennium
(6) Canyon del Oro
(7) Cienega
(8) Sabino
(9) Cactus
(10) Apache Junction
(11) Prescott
(12) McClintock
(13) Sunnyslope
(14) Catalina Foothills
(15) Agua Fria
(16) Lake Havasu
Summary:
15 out of top 16 in playoffs (success = 93.75%)
12 out of top 16 preseason to final (success = 75%)
Notes:
Agua Fria (4-6, #9 SOS) slipped in over Flowing Wells (5-5, #21 SOS) here and
was able to nab the 15th seed over Lake Havasu (5-5, #15 SOS). This is the
second year in a row where Agua Fria is the beneficiary of
a flawed Power Points system.
5A-II:
Preseason Top 16: End of Season Top 16:
1) Centennial 1) Centennial
2) Sunnyside 2) Marcos de Niza
3) Deer Valley 3) Sunnyside
4) South Mountain 4) Westview
5) Marcos de Niza 5) Boulder Creek
6) Westview 6) Ironwood Ridge
7) Pinnacle 7) South Mountain
8) Ironwood 8) Desert Ridge
9) Ironwood Ridge 9) La Joya
10) Goldwater 10) Willow Canyon
11) Marana Mt. View 11) North
12) Cibola 12) Skyline
13) Desert Ridge 13) Kofa
14) Skyline 14) Deer Valley
15) North 15) Pinnacle
16) Horizon [ 16) Cibola ]
[ 20) Marana Mt. View ]
(seed) Teams that made the playoffs:
(1) Centennial
(2) Westview
(3) Marcos de Niza
(4) Ironwood Ridge
(5) Sunnyside
(6) La Joya
(7) Boulder Creek
(8) Desert Ridge
(9) Pinnacle
(10) Willow Canyon
(11) Skyline
(12) South Mountain
(13) North
(14) Deer Valley
(15) Marana Mt. View
(16) Kofa
Summary:
15 out of top 16 in playoffs (success = 93.75%)
12 out of top 16 preseason to final (success = 75%)
Notes:
Marana Mt. View (4-6, #7 SOS) replaced Cibola (also 4-6, but SOS was #29).
No arguments here because there were only 15 teams at .500 or above, so someone
had to make the playoffs as team #16.
5A-I:
Preseason Top 16: End of Season Top 16:
1) Brophy Prep 1) Mesa Mt. View
2) Hamilton 2) Hamilton
3) Mesa Mt. View 3) Salpointe Catholic
4) North Canyon 4) Desert Vista
5) Red Mountain 5) North Canyon
6) Corona del Sol 6) Corona del Sol
7) Salpointe Catholic 7) Mountain Ridge
8) Basha 8) Cesar Chavez
9) Mountain Ridge 9) Chandler
10) Chandler 10) Gilbert
11) Mesa 11) Brophy Prep
12) Desert Vista 12) Mesa
13) Westwood 13) Highland
14) St. Mary's [ 14) Desert Mountain ]
15) Gilbert 15) Tucson
16) Mountain Pointe 16) Basha
[ 17) Red Mountain ]
(seed) Teams that made the playoffs:
(1) Mesa Mt. View
(2) Hamilton
(3) Salpointe Catholic
(4) Desert Vista
(5) Brophy Prep
(6) Mountain Ridge
(7) Chandler
(8) Corona del Sol
(9) Cesar Chavez
(10) Gilbert
(11) Red Mountain
(12) Basha
(13) Highland
(14) Mesa
(15) North Canyon
(16) Tucson
Summary:
15 out of top 16 in playoffs (success = 93.75%)
12 out of top 16 preseason to final (success = 75%)
Notes:
Red Mountain and Desert Mountain posted identical records (5-5), and even their SOS was similar (RM = #2, DM = #7). No arguments here either.
Final notes:
The DKC Rankings are shown to be extremely accurate, missing only one playoff
team for each region (2A and 4A-II excepted). Generally speaking, except for
1A - which has regional obligations for playoff seedings - if your team ends up
with a rank of 12 or better, you're definitely playoff bound. The teams from
13-16 are the ones that need to be worried, as the Power Points system unfairly
sticks a less worthy team into the playoffs every time.
In previous years, if one had to pick a "safe" ranking between 13-16, the #14 spot would have been the excellent choice, making the playoffs almost 86% of the time.
However, in 2008, the formula was tweaked to allow for more points gained due to strength of schedule. We noted a direct correlation at the end of the season to this tweak - now the #14 team is the WORST ranking to be in at the end of the season. Teams at #14 were skipped in 4 out of 6 conferences, meaning that a team only has a 33% chance of making the playoffs if they end the season at #14. The other spot that got skipped a lot? #16. But then again, if your team ends the season at #16, you're basically on the bubble anyway and should be worried.
If you're one of those lesser teams (ranked below 16), you might want to consider this: the lucky lesser team rank that usually gets that call to replace a #14 teams is the team in the #18 spot (50% chance). #19 and #17 each had a 25% chance as well. However, overall, #17, #18, and #21 each had a 25% chance to replace ANY team, with #19 and #20 only getting a slim 12.5% chance.
Anything below #21? Fuhgeddaboutit.