There are two metrics that are important out of this:
Within the ranking community, it is generally accepted that for item #1, the average ranking system should have a success rate between 85% - 95%. For item #2, a success rate of 70% is considered Superior, 60% is Excellent, 50% is Average, and 40% or below is considered Below Average. (I personally consider it "Failure"...)
A wrap up summary of the numbers is at the end of this post. Be sure to check it out if you're interested in the playoff findings!
That said, here's the season summary:
1A:
Preseason Top 12: End of Season Top 12:
1) Mayer 1) Valley Union
2) Joseph City 2) Mogollon
3) Mogollon 3) Pima
4) Pima 4) Bagdad
5) Valley Union 5) Tempe Prep
6) Ft. Thomas 6) Orme
7) Bagdad 7) Ft. Thomas
8) Williams 8) Joseph City
9) Orme 9) Duncan
10) Tempe Prep 10) Valley Lutheran
11) Salt River 11) St. David
12) Fredonia 12) Mayer
[ 19) Patagonia ]
Teams that made the playoffs (region seed):
Valley Union (South #1)
Mogollon (North #1)
Pima (East #1)
Bagdad (West #1)
Tempe Prep (East #2)
Orme (North #3)
Ft. Thomas (East #3)
Joseph City (North #2)
Valley Lutheran (West #3)
St. David (South #2)
Mayer (West #2)
Patagonia (South #3)
Summary:
11 out of top 12 in playoffs (success = 91.7%)
7 out of top 10 preseason to final (success = 70%)
Notes:
Patagonia (3-4) was the beneficiary of a very weak South region which was
obligated to send three teams. With guaranteed region tie-ins, a very
deserving 5-2 Duncan team was left out. This system is ok, but could be
better.
2A:
Preseason Top 16: End of Season Top 16:
1) Valley Christian 1) Yuma Catholic
2) St. Johns 2) Hayden
3) Hayden 3) Scottsdale Christian
4) Thatcher 4) Valley Christian
5) Phoenix Christian 5) Benson
6) Yuma Catholic 6) Red Mesa
7) Arizona Lutheran 7) St. Johns
8) Antelope 8) Arizona Lutheran
9) Canyon State Academy 9) Northwest Christian
10) Camp Verde 10) Thatcher
11) Tombstone 11) Antelope
12) Red Mesa 12) Pusch Ridge Christian
13) Bisbee 13) Sanders Valley
14) Willcox 14) Bisbee
15) Bourgade Catholic 15) Tonopah Valley
16) North Pointe Prep 16) Greyhills Academy
[ 18) San Manuel ]
[ 19) Camp Verde ]
(seed) Teams that made the playoffs:
(1) Yuma Catholic
(2) Scottsdale Christian
(3) Valley Christian
(4) Arizona Lutheran
(5) Red Mesa
(6) Hayden
(7) Northwest Christian
(8) Benson
(9) Thatcher
(10) St. Johns
(11) Antelope
(12) Pusch Ridge Christian
(13) Tonopah Valley
(14) Camp Verde
(15) Bisbee
(16) San Manuel
Summary:
14 out of top 16 in playoffs (success = 87.5%)
6 out of top 10 preseason to final (success = 60%)
Notes:
Power Points used for the first time to determine playoff eligibility, and
wouldn't you know it, a team with a losing record makes it in over TWO teams
with better records (Camp Verde at 4-6 vs. Sanders Valley at 6-4 and Greyhills
Academy at 5-5).
Adding insult - Camp Verde receives a #14 seed versus Bisbee (5-5) and San
Manuel (seeded #15 and #16 respectively). This continues to prove my argument
that power points are not the answer for playoffs and a ranking system needs
to be implemented.
The best solution is here.
3A:
Preseason Top 16: End of Season Top 16:
1) Coolidge 1) Blue Ridge
2) Winslow 2) Wickenburg
3) Round Valley 3) Show Low
4) Blue Ridge 4) Coolidge
5) Wickenburg 5) Chino Valley
6) River Valley 6) River Valley
7) Fountain Hills 7) Payson
8) Show Low 8) Snowflake
9) Safford 9) Round Valley
10) Monument Valley 10) Maricopa
11) Snowflake 11) Winslow
12) Window Rock 12) Fountain Hills
13) Tuba City 13) Parker
14) Payson 14) Holbrook
15) Chinle 15) Tuba City
16) Globe 16) Ganado
[ 18) Santa Cruz ]
(seed) Teams that made the playoffs:
(1) Blue Ridge
(2) Wickenburg
(3) Coolidge
(4) Winslow
(5) Show Low
(6) Payson
(7) Round Valley
(8) Snowflake
(9) River Valley
(10) Chino Valley
(11) Parker
(12) Holbrook
(13) Maricopa
(14) Santa Cruz
(15) Ganado
(16) Fountain Hills
Summary:
15 out of top 16 in playoffs (success = 93.75%)
6 out of top 10 preseason to final (success = 60%)
Notes:
Power Points were in play here in 3A, and Tuba City was the odd one out.
Only one minor issue here - even though Santa Cruz and Tuba City had
identical records at 5-5, Fountain Hills should have been seeded 14th
instead and the last two in (Santa Cruz, Ganado) should have been 15 and 16.
4A-II:
Preseason Top 16: End of Season Top 16:
1) Mingus 1) Mingus
2) Arcadia 2) Santa Rita
3) Flagstaff 3) Notre Dame Prep
4) Queen Creek 4) Higley
5) Higley 5) Buckeye
6) Seton Catholic 6) Palo Verde
7) Palo Verde 7) Queen Creek
8) Glendale 8) Bradshaw Mtn
9) Buckeye 9) Greenway
10) Douglas 10) Washington
11) Bradshaw Mtn 11) Mohave
12) Washington 12) Arcadia
13) Sahuarita 13) Catalina
14) Notre Dame Prep 14) Coronado
15) Moon Valley 15) Flagstaff
16) Catalina 16) Raymond S Kellis
[ 17) Moon Valley ]
Teams that made the playoffs (seed):
Mingus (#1)
Santa Rita (#4)
Notre Dame Prep (#3)
Higley (#7)
Buckeye (#2)
Palo Verde (#11)
Queen Creek (#6)
Bradshaw Mtn (#5)
Greenway (#9)
Washington (#8)
Mohave (#10)
Arcadia (#15)
Coronado (#13)
Flagstaff (#16)
Raymond S Kellis (#12)
Summary:
15 out of top 16 in playoffs (success = 93.75%)
5 out of top 10 preseason to final (success = 50%)
Notes:
Power points again biasing the selection of Moon Valley (5-5) over a team
with a better record (6-4 Catalina).
4A-I:
Preseason Top 16: End of Season Top 16:
1) Sabino 1) Saguaro
2) Cienega 2) Sabino
3) Chaparral 3) Cactus
4) Saguaro 4) Canyon del Oro
5) Independence 5) Nogales
6) Peoria 6) Millennium
7) Paradise Valley 7) Peoria
8) Canyon del Oro 8) Paradise Valley
9) Cactus 9) Chaparral
10) Sunnyslope 10) Prescott
11) Cactus Shadows 11) Cienega
12) Prescott 12) Marana
13) Agua Fria 13) Lake Havasu
14) O'Connor 14) McClintock
15) McClintock 15) Desert View
16) Cholla 16) Apache Junction
[ 19) Agua Fria ]
Teams that made the playoffs (seed):
Saguaro (#1)
Sabino (#3)
Cactus (#2)
Canyon del Oro (#6)
Nogales (#9)
Millennium (#4)
Peoria (#7)
Paradise Valley (#8)
Chaparral (#5)
Prescott (#14)
Cienega (#11)
Marana (#10)
Lake Havasu (#12)
McClintock (#15)
Apache Junction (#13)
Summary:
15 out of top 16 in playoffs (success = 93.75%)
7 out of top 10 preseason to final (success = 70%)
Notes:
There's no real way to explain how a 4-6 team inexplicably gets in over three
teams with better records, but two did. McClintock (4-6), ranked #14 by the
DKC rankings, received a #15 seed (more on this below). Agua Fria (4-6),
ranked #19 by DKC, received a #16 seed. Granted, those were the appropriate
seeds, but the teams snubbed? Desert View (5-5), Thunderbird (6-4), and
Catalina Foothills (5-5). Once again, Agua Fria was the beneficiary of a
flawed Power Points system.
However, note that the computer also believed in McClintock for good reason:
McClintock knocked off the #2 seed (Cactus) in the first round!
5A-II:
Preseason Top 16: End of Season Top 16:
1) Centennial 1) Centennial
2) Sunnyside 2) Marcos de Niza
3) Ironwood 3) Sunnyside
4) Central 4) South Mountain
5) Deer Valley 5) Pinnacle
6) Marana Mt. View 6) Deer Valley
7) Goldwater 7) Westview
8) North 8) Skyline
9) South Mountain 9) Ironwood Ridge
10) Horizon 10) Goldwater
11) Westview 11) Desert Ridge
12) Cibola 12) Cibola
13) Ironwood Ridge 13) Ironwood
14) Marcos de Niza 14) Marana Mt. View
15) Tolleson 15) Willow Canyon
16) Desert Ridge 16) Kofa
[ 21) La Joya ]
Teams that made the playoffs (seed):
Centennial (#1)
Marcos de Niza (#3)
Sunnyside (#5)
South Mountain (#10)
Pinnacle (#2)
Deer Valley (#9)
Westview (#6)
Skyline (#11)
Ironwood Ridge (#4)
Goldwater (#12)
Desert Ridge (#8)
Cibola (#15)
Ironwood (#14)
Marana Mt. View (#7)
Willow Canyon (#13)
Summary:
15 out of top 16 in playoffs (success = 93.75%)
5 out of top 10 preseason to final (success = 50%)
Notes:
La Joya (5-5), ranked #21 by DKC, garnered the #16 seed. This is also probably
the only time I'll agree with it. In 2007, the entire 5A-II region was
dismally awful below the #15 rank, with the remaining 15 teams EXCEPT La Joya
posting a losing record.
5A-I:
Preseason Top 16: End of Season Top 16:
1) Hamilton 1) Hamilton
2) Mesa Mt. View 2) Corona del Sol
3) Salpointe Catholic 3) Red Mountain
4) North Canyon 4) Brophy Prep
5) Brophy Prep 5) Mesa Mt. View
6) Basha 6) Mountain Ridge
7) Red Mountain 7) North Canyon
8) St. Mary's 8) Chandler
9) Casa Grande 9) Mesa
10) Chandler 10) Salpointe Catholic
11) Mountain Ridge 11) Basha
12) Desert Vista 12) Desert Vista
13) Westwood 13) Westwood
14) Corona del Sol 14) Desert Mountain
15) Mesa 15) Gilbert
16) Highland 16) Dobson
[ 18) Mesquite ]
Teams that made the playoffs (seed):
Hamilton (#1)
Corona del Sol (#5)
Red Mountain (#2)
Brophy Prep (#4)
Mesa Mt. View (#3)
Mountain Ridge (#8)
North Canyon (#15)
Chandler (#6)
Mesa (#12)
Salpointe Catholic (#13)
Basha (#10)
Desert Vista (#11)
Westwood (#9)
Gilbert (#14)
Dobson (#7)
Summary:
15 out of top 16 in playoffs (success = 93.75%)
7 out of top 10 preseason to final (success = 70%)
Notes:
Mesquite (4-6) chosen over Desert Mountain (4-6) isn't such a big deal -
again, 2007 was not a kind year for the 5A regions, as the last 12 teams
in 5A-I posted losing records, just like 5A-II.
Final notes:
The DKC Rankings are shown to be extremely accurate, missing only one playoff
team for each region (except for 2A). Generally speaking, except for 1A -
which has regional obligations for playoff seedings - if your team ends up
with a rank of 12 or better, you're definitely playoff bound. The teams from
13-16 are the ones that need to be worried, as the Power Points system unfairly
sticks a less worthy team into the playoffs every time.
However, the silver lining: if one had to pick a "safe" ranking of those four,
the #14 team made the playoffs 86% of the time. The remainder? 29% of the time
each rank (13, 15, 16) got skipped for a lesser team.
If you're one of those lesser teams (ranked below 16), you might want to
consider this: the lucky lesser team rank that usually gets that call is the
team in the #18 spot (43% chance). Others were #19 (29%), #17 and #21 (14%
each). So consider that the #17 rank isn't so hot if you're bound and
determined to make the playoffs - you have a better shot (72%) if you're in
either the 18 or 19 spot.
The most unlucky spot? #20 - in no scenario did the #20 team get selected.